Some key games headline the NFL Week 10 odds with Sunday night’s showdown in Las Vegas among the biggest bet games between the Kansas City Chiefs (5-4) and Las Vegas Raiders (5-3). Raiders QB Derek Carr (2,564) and Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes (2,534) lead the AFC in passing yards. Mahomes has 20 TD passes and 10 interceptions. Carr has just 13 TD passes, but his 320 passing yards per game leads the AFC and is No. 2 in the NFL behind Tom Brady. The Raiders are 3-1 SU/ATS as an underdog this season, and 9-1-1 ATS in Derek Carr’s career as a home underdog in prime time games.
Kansas City has surprisingly played four straight games under the total, and each game has stayed under the total by at least 10 points. The over/under is 52 against the Raiders, who blitz less than any team in the NFL but still rank No. 6 in the league in pressure rate. The Chiefs continue to burn bettors, and Kansas City is on a 3-14 ATS run over their last 17 regular season games including 2-7 ATS this season.
“I’m amazed this season, the public in general has deserted the Chiefs and moved against them,” FanDuel Sportsbook Director of Trading John Sheeran said this week on the Bet the Board Podcast. “It’s been a steady flow against the Chiefs the last three to four weeks with people pretty reluctant to bet on them, and I’m not sure we’ll see a whole lot of public money on the Chiefs.”
The Chiefs were quite efficient on offense the first six games while averaging more than 400 yards per game. But Kansas City has scored just 3, 20 and 13 points in three recent games while winning their last two, including last week over Green Bay who was playing without QB Aaron Rodgers. “It’s been pretty incredible the struggles they’ve had offensively,” Sheeran added as the Chiefs have averaged just over 300 yards offense in their last three games and only 4.5 yards per play.
The AFC West is tightly-packed at the top with all four teams sporting winning records. The Los Angeles Chargers are popular pick as a 3-point home favorite this week as they tackle the Minnesota Vikings in an expected shootout at SoFi Stadium. I bet over the total, and FanDuel Sportsbook is offering +500 odds that it’s the highest scoring NFL game on Sunday. The Chargers and Vikings game is the other Week 10 match-up featuring top performing quarterbacks in Justin Herbert and Kirk Cousins. Note a number of key injuries, and all Week 10 injury updates from Pro Football Focus.
Plenty of surprises this season as team’s push towards the playoffs as the second half of the season continues. After underdogs went 10-4 ATS in Week 9 to give sportsbooks a big winning week, Week 10 kicked off Thursday with a big upset when the Miami Dolphins (+8.5) took down the AFC North leading Baltimore Ravens 22-10, giving FanDuel Sportsbook another big win as more than 80% of the spread bets and money was on the Ravens.
Cleveland at New England
Another key game in the AFC is Cleveland at New England (-2.5). Both teams are 5-4 and in the playoff chase. The betting split is nearly even at FanDuel Sportsbook with the Patriots taking 55% of the spread money heading into the weekend, and more with Browns RB Nick Chubb (COVID) ruled out Saturday.
“One of our sharpest customers took New England -1.5, which really confused us as nobody on the trading floor made this number any more than a pick ‘em,” Sheeran said.
I’m supporting the Browns as underdog, and have had success this season going 14-5 ATS posting weekly underdog plays including cashing in on the Browns in last week’s beatdown of the Bengals, 41-16. Key is the Browns top offensive line and running game, which leads the league averaging 160 yards per game and 5.3 yards per rush. Browns RB Nick Chubb leads the league with 6.0 yards per rush and is No. 2 averaging 103 rushing yards per game. But he’s out Sunday after testing positive for COVID-19 this week, and Cleveland is depleted at running back with third stringer D’Ernest Johnson getting his second start after rushing for 146 yards and a touchdown last month against a more depleted Denver front seven.
Still, the Browns defense is among the very best this season as graded by Pro Football Focus. Cleveland has allowed 5.1 yards per play this season facing a much tougher schedule of opponents and quarterbacks than the Patriots, who have allowed 5.4 yards per play. New England rookie QB Mac Jones faces a tough challenge against a Browns defense that generates the second best pressure rate in the NFL, and No. 1 in pass rush win rate despite blitzing only 21% of quarterback drop backs which ranks among the lower third of the league. In two other games this season against solid defenses of Tampa Bay and New Orleans at home, Jones was forced to pass more including 91 times with four interceptions in those two losses with the Patriots offense scoring just 13 and 17 points in defeat.
Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson and Ben Roethlisberger
Another late afternoon kickoff with much anticipation and betting interest includes Seattle at Green Bay. The Packers opened a 5-point favorite and moved down to 3.5 with uncertain quarterback situations. Now the line is Packers -3 at FanDuel Sportsbook even with QB Aaron Rodgers activated off the COVID list Saturday afternoon and expected to start. Green Bay is 17-2 at home since 2019, and face a Seahawks team rested and ready off a bye with Russell Wilson (finger) returning from injury sooner than expected and set to start at Lambeau Field. Seattle (3-5) is desperate for a win, but the Seahawks are still alive in the wild card chase with an extra third team in each conference earning a wild card entry this season.
The Packers (7-2) are pushing for a top seed in the NFC and hold the tie-breaker should they be tied with Arizona. But the Cardinals (8-1) and Tennessee Titans (7-2) would be the top conference seeds if the playoffs started this week, and neither was a top 8 team in FanDuel Sportsbook’s odds to win the Super Bowl at the start of the season.
Last week six back-up quarterbacks were inserted into the starting lineup, and those teams went 3-3 SU and 4-2 ATS. Now the Steelers (5-3) are without Big Ben this week after Roethlisberger was placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list. Mason Rudolph will make his first start this season after starting eight games last year while Big Ben was out with an elbow injury. FanDuel Sportsbook has moved the betting line down from -8.5 to -6.5 favoring the Steelers with the total down to 41. Pittsburgh is 2-2 SU but 0-4 ATS this season as a betting favorite.
Will the winless Detroit Lions (0-8) find a way to pull the upset rested and ready off their bye week? Will there be an overtime game on Sunday for the 13th time this season (odds are yes, -185)? Fans and bettors are wondering if or when the Lions will get their first win, but Detroit is generating more betting support this week. That despite the Lions allowing opponents to convert 20-of-24 red zone possessions into touchdowns, the highest rate in the league. Detroit is +400 to go winless and 0-17 this season at FanDuel Sportsbook, which offers plenty of weekly specials and betting props beyond the spread, total and moneyline.
You can bet on it.