Buffalo At Kansas City Headlines NFL Week 5 Odds, Picks And Highest Total Of The Season

Another big game and huge betting handle on tap for Week 5 when the Kansas City Chiefs host the Buffalo Bills. The Sunday Night Football feature is a rematch of last year’s AFC Championship Game won by the Chiefs, 38-14.

Last Sunday Night’s 19-17 win by the Buccaneers over the Patriots (+7) produced the largest handle of the season on any NFL game. Sportsbooks cleaned up on a majority of bettors, as more than 90% of spread bets were on Tampa Bay at most leading sportsbooks.

I bet the Patriots, and will be on the underdog Bills again this Sunday night. NBC color analyst Chris Collinsworth, owner and chairman of Pro Football Focus, provides commentary with lead analyst Al Michaels on the Chiefs vs Bills and two leading MVP favorites, Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen.

FanDuel Sportsbook oddsmaker and Director of Trading John Sheeran noted on the Bet the Board Podcast that the Buccaneers and Patriots game “was the biggest regular season game so far, in terms of handle.”

A stirring performance by the Patriots kept the game close, much to the dismay of a majority of bettors and recreational players.

“We saw that huge bias towards Brady and the Bucs,” Sheeran added. “And it turned out to be nearly a perfect result with the favorite win and not cover.”

Especially with the final score staying under the total as well.

This week’s Sunday Night Football special feature is the highest posted total of the season at 56.5 points, and some sportsbooks now showing 57 for the over/under on the Chiefs and Bills game. There are two additional games with the lowest posted totals of the season with an over/under of 39.5 points in the Steelers vs Broncos match-up and Texans vs Patriots game.

NFL Week 5 Sharp Moves and Bets

Sheeran noted some significant money from professional bettors on Week 5 games.

“Professional money came in on the Vikings,” (from -7.5 to -10), Sheeran said. “That was a pretty sharp move early on in the week.”

He also commented on the sharp money supporting the Cincinnati Bengals.

“We saw sharp professional money on the Bengals plus-4 and the moneyline.” He added, “The Bengals play with extra prep and rest off a Thursday night game.”

The Packers also have some key injuries, including to premier cornerback Jaire Alexander, who is out with a shoulder injury.

The NFL Week 5 odds and lines at FanDuel Sportsbook show some additional movement on games both on sides and totals. The Chargers are up from -1 to -2.5 vs the Browns and the Broncos from road underdog +1 to favorite of -1.5 vs Steelers. Also, the Falcons are down from -3.5 to -2.5 vs the Jets in London. Notable totals moves include Cardinals vs 49ers down from 53 to 48.5, and Cowboys vs Giants up from 49.5 to 52.5.

The Cardinals (4-0) are the only undefeated team heading into Week 5 and their AFC West game against the 49ers. Sheeran also commented on the adjustment in power ratings on Arizona.

“We’ve adjusted the Cardinals up, and I’ve noted their their efficiency numbers.”

Buffalo at Kansas City

The opinion by media members noted by FanDuel Sportsbook will favor the Chiefs to beat the Bills. Sheeran says he expects more public money on Kansas City closer to game time, but added.

“I’ve been really disappointed in the Chiefs defense. It looks really, really weak.”

That’s part of the reason for the highest total of 56.5, along with top quarterbacks and offensive efficiency numbers.

NFL games are averaging 47 points per game this season (46.98 exactly).

An overcast evening with clouds and near 70 degrees at kickoff in Kansas City Sunday night. Monitor the NFL weather and potential for rain Sunday evening.

Here is some stats and info provided by Sharp Football Analysis, which can be used for both betting and fantasy football insight.

• The Chiefs lead the NFL in points per possession (3.56).
• The Bills are fourth at 2.81 points per drive.
• The Chiefs are the last remaining team that has allowed their opponent to hit their implied team total in every game this season.
• The Chiefs are allowing a league-high 45.6 yards per opponent possession. 
• The Bills are allowing a league-low 18.4 yards per possession.
• The Chiefs have turned 35.7% of their first or second down plays into first downs, the highest rate in the league.
• Kansas City has allowed opponents to convert 36.7% of their first and second down plays into first downs, the highest rate in the league.
• The Bills are averaging a league-high 5.8 sacks plus turnovers per game defensively.
• The Bills are leading the league in plays per game run inside of the red zone (17.0).
• The Chiefs have allowed the most red zone possessions (19) and have allowed 15 (78.9%) to be converted for touchdowns (28th). 
• Patrick Mahomes leads the league in fantasy points scored in the red zone (47.4) where he is 15-of-20 (75%) with nine touchdown passes (zero interceptions) and one rushing touchdown.

I chip-in more insight and analysis on the game and match-up noting the Bills (3-1) have played the easiest schedule thus far with none of their four opponents sporting a winning record, and only Washington at .500 (2-2). The Chiefs (2-2) have played three teams with winning records and a stronger group of quarterbacks. Keep that in mind as you evaluate the stats, but here are some to note.

• The Chiefs defense is last in the league on defense heading into this week allowing 437 yards per game and 6.9 yards per play. 
• The Bills defense is No. 1 in the league allowing 216 yards per game and 4.0 yards per play.
• The Bills defense allows just 68 rushing yards per game at 3.2 yards per rush.
• The Bills offensive rushing attack averages 145 yards per game to rank top 5 in the league.
• The Chiefs run defense allows an AFC-worst 146 rushing yards per game and 5.4 yards per rush.
• The Bills are +7 in turnover margin and the Chiefs are -3.

From the Playbook Sports newsletter, Buffalo QB Josh Allen is 12-1 SU and 10-2-1 ATS in his NFL career against opponents coming off a SU and ATS win, including 7-0 SU/ATS when the Bills own a greater than .666 win percentage. Allen is 29-16-2 ATS in regular season games, and 14-6-2 ATS as an underdog. Mahomes is 8-1-1 ATS in his career when not favored by more than 3 points. 

A win by the Bills or a Chiefs win by less than 3 points would improve NFL underdogs against the spread record for the season, which stands at 38-26 ATS heading into Week 5.

You can bet on it.