Overview:
resident Donald Trump wasn’t on the poll Tuesday, however voters in key races throughout 4 states seen him as a destructive affect—or irrelevant—in keeping with an AP Voter Ballot. Ends in New York Metropolis, Virginia, New Jersey and California present restricted enthusiasm for the previous president throughout his newest time period.
By Linley Sanders, Josh Boak, and Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux | Related Press
WASHINGTON (AP) — President Donald Trump wasn’t on the poll in Tuesday’s elections, however many citizens in key races made their alternative in opposition to him or thought of him to be irrelevant, in keeping with the AP Voter Ballot.
It was hardly an endorsement of his almost 10 months again within the White Home.
That theme performed out within the governor races in New Jersey and Virginia, the mayoral contest in New York Metropolis and a state proposition to redraw congressional districts in California.
The AP Voter Ballot, which surveyed greater than 17,000 voters in these locations, discovered that the majority voters disapproved of Trump’s efficiency as president, and plenty of thought his aggressive method to immigration had “gone too far.” Republicans and those that lean towards the Republican Get together had been extra more likely to say Trump wasn’t an element for his or her vote, despite the fact that most approve of his job efficiency.
Few solid a vote to help Trump, whereas extra needed to oppose him
Most presidents fare poorly within the off-cycle elections that come a yr after their White Home wins, and Trump match solidly into that sample as Democrats boasted victories in Tuesday’s key races.
In each Virginia and New Jersey, barely fewer than half of voters mentioned Trump was “not an element” of their respective votes for governor. Beside some social media posts and tele-rallies Monday evening, Trump did little to assist Republican candidates in these states.
About 6 in 10 voters in New York Metropolis’s mayoral race mentioned Trump didn’t play a task of their determination. That’s regardless of his risk to withdraw federal funding if Democratic nominee Zohran Mamdani gained, and his social media endorsement of Andrew Cuomo, the previous New York governor.
New York Metropolis voters picked Mamdani to be their next mayor, establishing a potential showdown with the Trump administration.
For individuals who did establish Trump as an element, it was to his drawback.
Roughly 4 in 10 voters in New Jersey and Virginia mentioned they had been casting ballots to oppose Trump. Fewer mentioned they had been voting to point out their help for the Republican president.
Trump weighed extra closely within the minds of California voters, who had been voting on a proposition to find out whether to redistrict the state’s congressional seats in favor of Democrats. The entire effort is designed to rebut Trump’s efforts to redraw congressional districts in Republican states with the particular objective of preserving the GOP Home majority in subsequent yr’s midterm races.
Solely about 4 in 10 California voters mentioned Trump didn’t issue into their determination. However about half mentioned they had been voting to object to Trump. Roughly 1 in 10 California voters mentioned they had been voting with help for him.
Voters largely disapproved of Trump, and plenty of solid ballots accordingly
Many citizens disapprove of how Trump has carried out since returning to the White Home in January. That could possibly be an issue for Republican candidates, as Trump has made loyalty to him a should for GOP candidates.
Solely about 4 in 10 voters throughout Virginia and New Jersey approve of how the president is dealing with his job. Approval was even decrease within the Democratic strongholds of California and New York Metropolis, the place near two-thirds of voters disapprove of his management to date.
Not surprisingly, the voters who had been likeliest to disapprove of him had been extra more likely to say they had been signaling their dislike of him when casting a poll. In the meantime, voters who like Trump’s job efficiency had been extra more likely to say the president wasn’t an element of their alternative.
Most Republican voters in Virginia and New Jersey accepted of Trump’s efficiency as president, however that didn’t imply they noticed him as a significant motivator. About 6 in 10 Republicans in each states mentioned Trump wasn’t an element of their vote.
Many citizens had been sad with Trump’s immigration method
In 2024, Trump capitalized on voters’ considerations about border crossings by immigrants with out authorized standing.
This yr, immigration fell far behind financial points for voters after they had been requested to consider what’s an important challenge dealing with their state or metropolis. It wasn’t a high concern for voters in any of the 4 states the place the AP Voter Ballot was performed.
The survey additionally discovered that many citizens had been sad with Trump’s aggressive method on deportations and arrests of immigrants believed to be within the nation illegally.
Voters in California, New Jersey, New York Metropolis and Virginia had been extra more likely to say that the Trump administration’s actions on immigration enforcement had “gone too far” than “been about proper” or “not gone far sufficient.”
However voters in Virginia and New Jersey had been about evenly break up on whether or not their subsequent governor ought to cooperate with the Trump administration on immigration enforcement.
Voters in New York Metropolis and California had been extra definitively opposed. About 6 in 10 voters in every place mentioned their leaders shouldn’t be cooperating with the White Home on immigration enforcement.
Methodology
The 2025 AP Voter Poll, performed by SSRS from Oct. 22–Nov. 4, consists of consultant samples of registered voters in California (4,490), New Jersey (4,244), New York Metropolis (4,304), and Virginia (4,215). The ballot combines on-line, phone, and in-person knowledge assortment, with in-person surveys performed at roughly 30 precincts per state or metropolis, excluding California. Respondents may full the ballot in English or Spanish. The margin of error was ±2.0 proportion factors in California, ±2.1 in New Jersey, ±2.2 in New York Metropolis, and ±2.1 in Virginia.